Recap: June 20th and Lookahead @ June 21st, US Northeast Electricity Markets – Team Canada: HQ to the Rescue

Hey guys and gals (that’s right, we now have some female readers, so going forward we shall implement a policy of equal opportunity sexism :). Thanks to all of you who have encouraged me to keep writing these (especially Jed – you are a scholar and a gentleman) and if you do enjoy them please add me to your social network of choice – I appreciate any and all feedback and am interested in what it is that all of you people do…

Well the day more or less started off as I expected, “Hot, damn hot!”

Heat warnings in the northeast, and excessive heat warnings in Death Valley, where ironically I had been last month attending a wedding in Las Vegas and en route to visit a mine in Parker, Arizona I dropped by the Hoover Dam to check it out…

I also took this picture of these girls, which I have no recollection of whatsoever…

Anyway, starting out the day, I can’t help but notice that our neighbors from New Brunswick appear to have a weak hand, having dropped their tie significantly really late on peak the previous night and that they were importing heavily early in the morning, with no significant change in load from previous days. Smelling blood in the streets, I knew exactly how to start off the summer :)

New England also appeared on shaky ground – Vermont Yankee (nuke) was definately struggling:

As confirmed by our good friends @ SNL:

“But to complicate matters, some of the hottest areas also are looking at faltering baseload nuclear supply. According to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, PPL Corp. cut its Susquehanna 1 in Pennsylvania to 30%, while Entergy Corp. cut its Vermont Yankee reactor to 36% capacity. In the Midwest, Xcel Energy Inc. cut its Prairie Island 1 in Minnesota to 44% power. All three reactors were at full capacity Monday.”

New England brought on an oil unit:

So did New York:

So clearly I could expect @ least oil prices – the thing that concerned me the most was it appeared Hydro Quebec had lost their Massena tie going into NYISO:

how could this be planned? I expected disaster, and got it:

these prices remind me of my initial post AND that I expected this to happen as per my most recent post :)

The next two hours I spent:

1 – graciously accepting compliments and praise from all those around the office in regards to my exceedingly brilliant forecast of what was going to happen in the electricity markets today
2 – giving a few accountants a glove-less face wash
3 – inviting everyone walking by to come see how much money we were making and muse aloud about how I should get paid significantly more
4 – taking this picture of this boat sailing by our office

Then New York seemed to settle down significantly, Long Island aside, and I took a look and it appeared the Massena tie was back in service:

You can see the effect this rapid tie movement has on LMP prices:

This chain of events is evident in the NYISO system view:

a – skyrocketing NYCity load
b – tomorrow is going to be even worse
c – Hydro Quebec loses tie
d – Hydro Quebec gloriously regains tie and
e – cause prices to plummet
f – uck tomorrow is going to be a complete fiasco

Talk about a heatwave(4 the dudes) | heatwave(4 the ladies :))

For those of you who are metrically challenged:

Ontario (IESO) may or may not have set a new record high – I took the following screen shot @ a reading of 27025mws but it then changed before I could grab it, but apparently my “record high” #’s are different from what some of the research companies are saying (prolly differences between base/system/net/gross/sans industrials):

another ‘yikes’ for you guys…base loaded nuke Vermont Yankee “very unsteady”

Which gloriously results in about a 12 hour stretch of oil prices (during which I completely dominated):

thanks to load coming in well over forecast :

and with 2morrow coming in much higher:

you can tell the folks @ ISO-NE are worried about 2morrow as they pulled the pumped storage units off at 8pm and let the oil prices @ $180-200/mw run til 11pm:

That’s all for now ladies and gents – I’d love to hear from anyone who enjoyed this or add me to your social network of choice as I find it very interesting what all of you actually do…

…oh yeah…remember…live the dream!

Peace,

Murphy

:)

PS – vacay for a week…try to keep the lights on would you? :)

7 thoughts on “Recap: June 20th and Lookahead @ June 21st, US Northeast Electricity Markets – Team Canada: HQ to the Rescue

  1. Two questions I have are how much reserve capacity is still available and what are the sizes of the 3 largest units?

  2. Interesting stuff!
    Where do you get that map of the HQ system that you included a screenshot of in this post? I’ve been on their website a handful of times and don’t see anything like that.

    Thanks!

  3. NB load is also a mystery to me, but you have a chart for that too. Is the real time load available publicly on their (or some other) website?

  4. We should set up a little information exchange vis-a-vis comp.

    Employers have information asymmetry advantage over us since they deploy HR surveys and always try to put their bids on the low end

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